Why We Need To See Trade’s Invisible Benefits
While we can debate causation or correlation, we do know that the two tariff increases that are comparable to the Trump tariffs were all followed by depressions. During 1930, creeping toward depression, we got a nudge from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. And before that, the 1890 McKinley Tariff was followed by the 1893-1896 depression. Somewhat different, the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922 came after the 1920-1921 contraction. According to Dartmouth Professor Douglas Irwin, hidden differentiators like tariffs’ starting bases and the share of trade they cover make them tough to compare. ….[READ]
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